Historical
Context: From the Green Revolution to Today
Agriculture has long
been central to Nigeria’s economy. In the 1960s, before the oil boom, Nigeria
was one of the world’s leading exporters of groundnuts, cocoa, and palm oil.
The famous groundnut
pyramids of Kano symbolized both abundance and export
potential. However, with the discovery of oil in commercial quantities in the
late 1950s and the subsequent oil boom of the 1970s, agriculture was relegated
to the background.
Efforts at
agricultural revival, such as the Operation Feed the Nation (1976)
under General Olusegun Obasanjo, the Green Revolution (1980)
under President Shehu Shagari, and later interventions like the Agricultural
Transformation Agenda (2011-2015) under Goodluck Jonathan, have
all attempted to reposition farming as a driver of growth. Yet, persistent
policy inconsistency, corruption, and poor investment in rural infrastructure
have undermined these programs.
The
Rising Cost Crisis
In recent years, the
situation has worsened due to global and local pressures. The Russia-Ukraine
war disrupted global fertilizer supplies, pushing up prices in Africa, where
Nigeria heavily relies on imports despite having gas reserves that could
support local fertilizer production. Farmers now pay double or triple the price
for urea and NPK fertilizers compared to five years ago.
Additionally, diesel,
the lifeline for powering irrigation pumps and transporting produce, has
skyrocketed since the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023. A tractor that once
tilled a hectare for ₦10,000 now demands ₦25,000 or more, making mechanization
increasingly inaccessible. Smallholder farmers are being forced back to
subsistence methods, undermining Nigeria’s ambition of achieving food
self-sufficiency.
Implications
for Food Security
The direct
consequence of rising farm input costs is declining productivity. Farmers
either reduce the size of land cultivated or abandon farming altogether.
Already, staple foods such as rice, maize, and beans have seen price hikes of over
200% in the past three years (NBS, 2024). If urgent action is
not taken, the next harvest could worsen inflation, deepen hunger, and increase
dependency on food imports.
This poses a grave
national security risk. History shows that hunger and scarcity have fueled
unrest in many societies. The 1977 “Ali Must Go” protests
in Lagos, though primarily about education, were fueled by wider economic
hardship and rising food prices. More recently, the #EndSARS protests
of 2020 also carried undertones of youth frustration with
economic despair. Nigeria cannot afford another round of unrest triggered by
empty stomachs.
What
Can Be Done Differently?
The Federal
Government must treat agriculture not as a social welfare project but as a
strategic security priority. First, fertilizer subsidies must be transparent
and targeted to genuine farmers through digital platforms, avoiding the corruption
that plagued past programs.
Second, Nigeria
should accelerate local fertilizer production by strengthening companies like Indorama
Eleme Petrochemicals and Dangote Fertilizer Plant, ensuring
affordability for farmers rather than export prioritization.
Third, innovative
financing models, such as farmer cooperatives, low-interest loans, and
public-private partnerships, must be scaled up. Countries like Kenya and
Ethiopia have successfully used digital platforms to deliver inputs directly to
farmers, cutting out middlemen. Nigeria can adapt these models.
Lastly, rural
infrastructure, farm-to-market roads, storage facilities, and security for
farming communities, must be improved. Farmers in states like Benue, Plateau,
and Zamfara are not only battling high costs but also violent attacks
by armed groups, which have displaced thousands from their
farmlands. Without addressing insecurity, even affordable inputs will not solve
the crisis.
Conclusion
Nigeria stands at a
tipping point. Rising costs of farm inputs are not just an agricultural
problem; they are a national emergency with implications for inflation,
security, and public stability. The resilience of farmers has kept the nation
fed in the past, but resilience has its limits. If urgent interventions are not
made before the next planting season, Nigeria risks sliding into a deeper food
crisis, one that no amount of rhetoric can contain.
The government must
listen to the cries from the farms, or the silence of empty markets will speak
louder.
